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Will Delphi Cripple GM?

Will a Delphi strike take down GM?

extended warrantyOnce upon a time, GM’s parts making branch split off and became Delphi.  Today Delphi is the worlds largest auto parts maker.  They sell parts to everyone including GM’s top foreign rival Toyota.  Delphi is currently in bankruptcy and a possible strike is looming.  Many have claimed that a Delphi strike would cripple GM and send the top North American auto maker into bankruptcy its self.  

However, not everyone thinks this will happen.  Jerry Flint, former Forbes senior editor, calls it a case of the media just playing up a negative story.  We all now that bad news is more entertaining that good news.  

He concedes that this may happen but is very unlikely.  There are several factors that support him. A strike would not happen until mid to late summer.  This gives Delphi and the auto makers time to store up parts for later.  Also by this time GM’s peak production will be over.  

On top of this, the United Auto Workers union does not want to destroy 100,000 GM jobs.  A crippling strike at Delphi by their members could do that.  And, as I mentioned earlier, Delphi supplies many automakers so this would not only affect GM.  The union would have national pressure on them.  

So, a Delphi strike would not be in GM’s best interests but if it happens that does not mean certain doom either. 

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Can GM Keep It Going?

After their first quarter profit how will GM fair?

extended warrantyOn Thursday, I blogged about GM’s first quarter profit this year.  They had initially reported a loss of $323 million, but after an accounting change, GM reported a $445 million profit during that time period.  This was is a good sign for the struggling company, but does it mean they are back on the right track for good?

Rick Wagoner, Chairman and CEO, calls the first quarter an “important milestone.”  However, he is still cautious and maintains that profits are not the only important step needed for the auto maker right now.  He is mainly interested in restructuring the company and offering new cars.  The redesign of the Saturn brand is a central part of the new plan.

All of this suggests that the company may be back on the right track but there are also negative signs as well.  Eric Noble, the President of The CarLab, points out that GM is still heavily dependent on its trucks and SUVs.  They make great large vehicles, but they are weak in the mid size and smaller car areas.  This could hurt if gas prices drive car buyers to the smaller vehicles.
                
GM will also lose revenue when the 51% sale of GMAC is complete at the end of this year.  They will gain $14 billion from its sale but they will miss out on the steady income it used to provide.  Hopefully by the end of the year, when they lose the GMAC revenue, they will be on their way to being profitable without it. 

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Shareholders Split Over Ford CEO

Criticism from some Ford shareholders.

extended warrantyThis country’s second leading auto maker has had a tough time over the last few years.  Ford lost over $2.5 billion in the first quarter of this year.  As with most companies, when things are going wrong you look to the person at the top.  In this case it is Bill Ford.

 He may have seen this coming or he might just be a generous guy because last year he pledged not to earn a salary or accept a bonus until Ford was profitable again.  However, that move did not silence the critics for long.

 "Mr. Ford is a failure. He has put shareholders and the company at bankruptcy’s door," said Sam Joanette, a Ford retiree and shareholder from Miami Beach, Fla., who said he has lost more than $1 million since investing most of his retirement money in Ford in 1999.


"Mr. Ford knows he is not qualified, that he is in over his head."


There are plenty of critics, but he has supporters as well.  There are many shareholders standing behind him. 

"He’s been a chairman who’s very responsive to small shareholders," Davis said.


Ford hopes that the restructuring plan and a move away from a more bureaucratic setting will help the company get back on the profitable side.  I’m sure he loves this company and has many reasons why he wants it to become profitable again, but I’m sure the resumption of his salary has to be one of those reasons.
 

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GM Turned Profit.

An accounting change turns loss into profit.

auto newsThe recent struggles of North America’s leading auto maker have been well documented.  From the period of January to March of 2005 GM experienced a $1.3 billion loss.  Earlier it was reported that for that same period this year they loss $323 million.  That is much better than last year but still a loss is a loss. 

The good news for GM is that the loss for this year’s first quarter is now a gain.  An accounting change made the difference.  When the initial loss was reported, GM was still working through a deal that requires retired workers to pay more for health care.  

GM must pay $3 billion into a trust for retirees between now and 2011. In its preliminary results, GM included a one-time, pretax charge of $1 billion to cover that contribution. The revised earnings remove that charge, which GM will now take over a seven-year period beginning in the third quarter of this year.


Other factors in GM’s first quarter profit were its sale of Suzuki Motor Corp. and the finalization of its sale of GMAC Commercial Mortgage.  The last quarterly profit GM had came in 2004.  They hope to shorten that time between the next one this time.  

GM expects to eliminate $4.5 billion in structural costs this year. 

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Hydrogen or Hybrids?

The future of powering our automobiles.

extended warrantyJust yesterday I wrote about the need for hybrid cars to become cheaper if they are going to take hold in the auto market.  As of now, the cost of upgrading to a hybrid off sets the gas you will save.  However, this may change soon.  

Right now, the great hope of the auto industry is the hydrogen fuel-cell powered vehicle.  However, that is still far away.  It may be 20 years before that technology arrives.  This means that the hybrid has a chance to rule right now.  Many auto makers are focusing on helping it achieve that status.  
            
Toyota is leading the hybrid wave at the moment and it plans to stay at its fore front. 

Toyota is practically the lone player in the hybrid car business. In 2005, the company sold about 250,000 hybrid cars, taking up some 80% market share. Currently, only such luxury cars made by Toyota as the Alfard, Prius, Estima and Harrier are equipped with the hybrid system. By reducing the production cost, however, the company plans to install the system on such popular cars as the Carolla and Vitz.


As I said, the key to Toyota’s plans is to make the hybrid cheaper.  They hope to accomplish this with further development of the lithium cell battery. 

The lithium ion battery is a type of the secondary battery that can be charged and used repeatedly. Compared with the nickel-cadmium and nickel-hydrogen cells, lithium ion battery is lighter in weight and its voltage is three times higher. It can be charged and store more electricity and thus it is more suitable for producing smaller and lighter batteries.


Toyota hopes to drastically cut the costs of producing hybrid models over the next three years.  And it looks like several others are looking to get in the hybrid game as well.  Hydrogen fuel-cells may be the way of the future but it looks like the next two decades will belong to the hybrids.

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The New Hybrids

What’s next for hybrid vehicles?

extended warrantyLately hybrids have been a hot topic in the auto world.  Spurred on by the price of gas, many auto makers have begun to focus aggressively on producing and marketing them.  However, discerning consumers may have seen that in some cases the purchase of a hybrid will not save them much or any money at all.  

It is true that you will save money because of the increased fuel efficiency but a hybrid car will cost around $3,000 more than its standard gas powered equivalent.  So, your driving habits will determine how much money you will save in the long run.  Most of the time it will end up being a wash.  

Up to this point, most hybrid owners purchased their vehicles because of environmental and social reasons.  If the hybrid is to make it big, it’s going to need to become cheaper.

However, for hybrids to take a major slice of the mass market, it will require the ‘hybrid price premium’ to be slashed from it’s current $3,000+ level to less than $1,000. Toyota, for one, is focusing on achieving this as soon as practicable.


Better technology and more efficient manufacturing techniques will be needed to bring the hybrid price down.  However, there is another option.  Flex fuel hybrids may help consumers get the most bang for their buck.

What makes real sense is the upgrading of current hybrid offerings to become ‘flexible fuel hybrids’, and full support from manufacturers that all new hybrid models will run on any mix of gasoline and E85. Less than $200 is added to the production cost of a conventional gasoline vehicle in upgrading it to handle E85. Congress, realizing that we are confronted by Global Warming, Peak Oil, and Energy Insecurity, has put the necessary ethanol pump-priming into the new Energy Policy Act.


Saving the environment is a very noble and worthy reason to own a hybrid but most car buyers are looking for one thing:  A cheap fuel efficient car.  Hopefully, that option is on the way.

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GM Says Goodbye To Girsky

A top advisor leaves after less than a year.

GM's Girsky resignsIt seems like every other day somebody important is stepping down or leaving a company.  Late last week is was Stephen Girsky’s turn.  Girsky was a full-time advisor for GM for a little under a year.  Before that, he was an analyst on Wall Street.  

As usual he cited family/personal reasons for his departure.  He wanted a job closer to home.  He was currently having to commute from New York to Detroit on a regular basis, and felt good about leaving at this time for business reasons.

Simonetti [GM Spokesperson] also said Girsky felt it was a good time to leave GM because the automaker’s North American turnaround plan is on track. GM narrowed its first-quarter loss to $323 million, down from $1.3 billion the year before.


That is definitely an improvement, but his replacement and the rest of the GM brass have their work cut out for them to get back to positive numbers. It just makes you wonder sometimes when people just leave for “family reasons.” However, GM shares rose 9 cents after the news became public.

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Will Gas Prices Come Back Down?

GM CEO thinks so.

extended warrantyWe have been talking about the price of gas a lot lately.  It seems that everywhere you turn you are reminded of $3.00 a gallon gas and the threat that it might go higher.  There are a lot of people afraid of just that happening.  However, Rick Wagoner is not among them.  

 Wagoner, chief executive of General Motors, is optimistic that gas prices will come back down in the future.  But how near is that future?  I’m not sure but hopefully soon.  

"They are too high right now and they will come back down," Wagoner said of oil prices during a conference at the company’s headquarters in Detroit that was broadcast over the Internet. He said consumer behavior isn’t expected to be negatively impacted by current gasoline prices, which are averaging about $2.92 a gallon according to the American Automobile Association.


This kind of thinking does seem to go against the latest trends.  Some consumers do seem to be moving toward smaller more efficient cars and automakers like Ford and Toyota are rushing to accommodate them with lots of hybrids.  GM is also working on its own share of hybrid vehicles but are not as focused on it as the other two I just mentioned.  They are still committed to bigger vehicles as well as the small.

Wagoner said GM aims to keep developing engines for its vehicles with improved fuel economy in mind. He said buyers tend to gravitate to bigger, more-powerful vehicles that typically consume relatively high levels of fuel. GM has touted its new full-size SUVs as being capable of achieving 20 miles per gallon, and the auto maker has a number of vehicles capable of achieving better than 30 miles per gallon.


The truth is that no one can predict exactly what will happen.  Each manufacturer will have to make its own adjustments as they go.  However, for the sake of our wallets I hope Mr. Wagoner is right.

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Big 3 Down To 2?

Toyota out sells Chrysler in the month of April.

Everyone knows that the North American automobile market has been dominated by the big three (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) for a long time now. Pretty much since people have been driving the things. However, Toyota, Japan’s top auto maker, has been steadily gaining ground over the past few years. Recently, they have benefitted from increased sales among smaller more fuel efficient cars.

This trend has helped them to out sell Chrysler (number 3 of the Big 3) in the month of April as Chrysler’s sales dipped and Toyota’s rose. During this same month, GM and Ford both saw a drop in sales as well.

Does this mean that Toyota will be able to out sell Chrysler for the year and cut the Big 3 down to 2?

To that end, both Toyota and Chrysler spokesmen were noncommittal. "We don’t really care" that Toyota’s sales are increasing, said Jason Vines, Chrysler Group spokesman. Vines noted that strong sales of the new Caliber compact and a slew of upcoming new models would keep Chrysler’s sales momentum strong for the rest of 2006.


Toyota has been equally aloof about this possibility but you know it has to be in the back of their minds. The North American companies have had many struggles of late but Toyota seems to keep expanding its American market.

No matter what happens, hopefully this competition will bring about good result for the industry and for the drivers.

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Do You Want a Safe Car?

Top cars for safety.

extended warrantyEveryone knows that sex sells; sex sells tv shows, books, and even vehicles.  Forbes.com has an article about how safety does not sell. Safety, to most westerners, is not preeminent when purchasing things. Although we talk a lot about safety, our purchasing habits don’t always reflect our concerns, which translates into companies building things that sell well. Thus, we have sexy cars outselling safe cars by a large margin

 There are plenty of fast sexy cars on the road, but how many earn the highest safety marks?

Sex appeal can translate into big sales volume, but safety technology almost never does. With the exception of Honda Motor, the brands that are most famous for building safe cars– Volvo and German car companies such as DaimlerChrysler’s Mercedes-Benz subsidiary–are not volume players.


So how many cars had the highest possible safety rating this year?  Not many.  In fact, just four cars can boast this achievement.  These are the Acura RL, Honda Civic, Saab 9-3, Volvo S-80.  

If you are not concerned about safety, check out this very interesting fact about the safety ratings.  

The difference between a good crash-test rating and a poor one is significant: A five-star NHTSA frontal-crash rating means a chance of serious injury of 10% or less in a head-on collision in which each vehicle is going 35 mph. A one-star rating means a chance of 46% or higher. NHTSA defines a "serious injury" as one that requires immediate hospitalization and may be life-threatening.


So that’s what those stars mean.  I think I will check those ratings a little more closely from now on.  How about you?  It’s great to buy a sexy car, but hopefully it will be a safe one too. 

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